Hablando de inversiones "alternativas"

¿Tienes preguntas acerca de tus inversiones personales? No importa si son simples o complejas, puedes preguntar aquí.
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Pepeco
Boglehead
Mensajes: 113
Registrado: Vie Ene 04, 2019 17:12

Hablando de inversiones "alternativas"

Mensaje por Pepeco » Vie Jun 21, 2019 12:14

Pensándolo bien, para aquellos que aun no han dado el paso, la inversión a través de fondos indexados merece ser tenida en cuenta aunque solo sea como opción "menos mala": Why I downvote your "alternative" investment advice:
Crypto - Crypto is a speculative commodity, not a value generating asset. The fact that you, or someone you know, got lucky and made a bunch of money off of it doesn't change that. [edit] The fact that the underlying technology has potential value generating applications outside of cryptocurrencies doesn't change that. You're not investing. You're gambling. Crypto has no place in a serious long term portfolio beyond some trivially small amount you keep on the side to play around with for fun (the same goes for any other speculative commodity as well).

Individual stocks - Yes, Warren Buffet can pick stocks. You can't. This isn't even an argument. The research on the topic is overwhelming. The average return for individual investors who pick their own stocks is something like 1-2%. The fact that you managed to outperform the market for a year or two isn't evidence to the contrary, it's survivorship bias.

Managed funds - This one gets more complicated. Yes, there are good fund managers out there who can outperform the market. But for you, the individual investor, the challenge is not in knowing that these people exist. The challenge is in being able to identify them from a) bad fund managers who match or underperform the market (the easy one), b) bad fund managers who outperform the market just due to luck, and c) good fund managers who outperform the market, but charge so much in fees that it doesn't matter. This is not necessarily an impossible task. But anyone who's done enough of their research to be able to successfully do that, is someone who knows enough that they don't need investment advice from random anonymous strangers on the internet. So it's still bad investment advice to go around doling out to random anonymous strangers on the internet.

Entrepreneurship - This seems to be the topic du jour for some reason. And though I've already mentioned it, I have to once again stress the topic of survivorship bias. 80% of small businesses fail within the first year. The fact that you were successful does not mean someone else will be. Not only that, but your success is not repeatable. Someone can go out and do exactly the same thing you did and lose everything they had. Entrepreneurship is at the very upper end of the risk/reward scale. Furthermore, running a business is most definitely not for everyone. It takes a very specific kind of person working in exactly the right field for them. Running around telling people, who've given no hint of any inclination to start a business, that the really ought to consider doing so just because it will lead to riches beyond their dreams is just bad advice.

Rental properties - I hesitate to include this one, because compared to the rest of this list, it's actually not a bad investment strategy. However, there is a specific, and very common, type of person who likes to pump rental properties that I will pretty much always downvote. And that's the type of person who likes to claim how much better their rental returns are relative to market returns while simultaneously glossing over things like the fact that they're: comparing leveraged returns to non-leveraged returns, not counting expenses like property taxes or maintenance, not counting risk factors like vacancy months, not counting the amount of sweat equity they put into their properties, or any combination of the above. Even taking all that into account, you like still have some small ROR premium, but it's often offset by the fact that your investment isn't liquid and isn't very diversified. Again, not a bad investment choice for a lot of people. But if you're one of the people who go around talking about how it's so much clearly better than equities and anyone who puts money into the market instead of rentals is an idiot, you're gonna get a downvote.
"There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult." - Warren Buffet. Hazlo simple.

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Jm2t
Boglehead
Mensajes: 145
Registrado: Vie Ene 04, 2019 21:34

Re: Hablando de inversiones "alternativas"

Mensaje por Jm2t » Vie Jun 21, 2019 14:32

Me gusta particularmente la reflexión que se hace a lo largo del hilo, y es que hay algunas cosas como el alquiler o los negocios que no son malas ideas de inversión, sino que son malos consejos de inversión. Es decir, que sin duda hay gente con un contexto muy particular que puede encontrar en ellos un buen nicho para acumular riqueza, pero para la inmensa mayoría no es así, y recomendar este tipo de inversión acabará para la mayoría en rentabilidades negativas o menores al mercado.

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Efra
Mensajes: 60
Registrado: Jue Ene 10, 2019 06:12

Re: Hablando de inversiones "alternativas"

Mensaje por Efra » Sab Jun 22, 2019 21:03

Jm2t escribió:
Vie Jun 21, 2019 14:32
Me gusta particularmente la reflexión que se hace a lo largo del hilo, y es que hay algunas cosas como el alquiler o los negocios que no son malas ideas de inversión, sino que son malos consejos de inversión. Es decir, que sin duda hay gente con un contexto muy particular que puede encontrar en ellos un buen nicho para acumular riqueza, pero para la inmensa mayoría no es así, y recomendar este tipo de inversión acabará para la mayoría en rentabilidades negativas o menores al mercado.
Totalmente de acuerdo. Añadiría que a veces el motivo para descartar una inversión no es tanto la rentabilidad, que puede ser muy buena, sino el quebradero de cabeza que acarrea. Yo desde luego el tema de comprar una casa con el único objetivo de alquilar, tal y como está la legislación española, me parece una de las inversiones más arriesgadas que existen para el común de los mortales.
No soy asesor. No uses mis opiniones para tomar decisiones

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